Amazon’s third-quarter 2026 results, released after the close on October 29, delivered a clear miss on both GAAP EPS of $1.89 versus the $1.96–$1.97 consensus and revenue of $201.9 billion against the $202.3 billion estimate, driving the 100% market-implied probability that shares would not beat quarterly expectations. Heavy AI-related capital spending produced negative free cash flow and weighed on net income, while softer advertising growth and conservative Q4 guidance reinforced the shortfall. Trader consensus reflects this verified data release rather than forward projections, though tail-risk scenarios such as material post-close adjustments or restatements could theoretically alter resolution.