China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.9%
6.0-7.0% 1.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 Wol.
$570,161 Wol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
70%
5.0–6.0%
29%
6.0-7.0%
2%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
<1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 70%
5.0–6.0% 28.9%
6.0-7.0% 1.6%
3.0–4.0% 1.4%
$570,161 Wol.
$570,161 Wol.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$44,354 Wol.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$43,493 Wol.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$23,773 Wol.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$46,348 Wol.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$138,542 Wol.
70%
5.0–6.0%
$56,149 Wol.
29%
6.0-7.0%
$51,008 Wol.
2%
7.0–8.0%
$55,733 Wol.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$23,951 Wol.
<1%
9.0%+
$86,811 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$570,161Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Wolumen
$570,161Data zakończenia
Jan 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s official 4.5–5% GDP growth target for 2026, set during the March Two Sessions, anchors trader expectations for the 4.0–5.0% range. Stronger-than-forecast 5% year-on-year expansion in Q1 2026, driven by resilient exports and industrial output, has reinforced this positioning while fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending provide near-term support. Most major forecasts, including those from the IMF at 4.4% and Goldman Sachs at 4.8%, cluster within or adjacent to the leading outcome. Persistent headwinds from weak domestic consumption, property-sector pressures, and elevated energy costs amid geopolitical tensions continue to limit upside risks, keeping the probability of outcomes above 5% or below 4% subdued.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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