Robust semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have positioned the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% bands as the leading market-implied outcomes for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth, with combined probabilities exceeding 100% in the latest pricing. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the strongest in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export expansion, prompting institutions including JPMorgan and KDI to lift full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Offsetting pressures from soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation continue to support probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% range. Traders will monitor May trade figures and global tech orders ahead of the July 28 advance GDP release, where any sustained export momentum could reinforce the current mid-3% to mid-4% consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoSouth Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 36.6%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 19.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
19%
1.5–1.9%
31%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
37%
3.0–3.4%
24%
3.5–3.9%
60%
4.0–4.4%
49%
4.5%+
25%
3.0–3.4% 43%
2.5–2.9% 36.6%
2.0–2.4% 20%
<1.5% 19.2%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
<1.5%
$278 Wol.
19%
1.5–1.9%
$184 Wol.
31%
2.0–2.4%
$351 Wol.
20%
2.5–2.9%
$161 Wol.
37%
3.0–3.4%
$154 Wol.
24%
3.5–3.9%
$319 Wol.
60%
4.0–4.4%
$276 Wol.
49%
4.5%+
$238 Wol.
25%
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Robust semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have positioned the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% bands as the leading market-implied outcomes for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth, with combined probabilities exceeding 100% in the latest pricing. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the strongest in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export expansion, prompting institutions including JPMorgan and KDI to lift full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Offsetting pressures from soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation continue to support probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% range. Traders will monitor May trade figures and global tech orders ahead of the July 28 advance GDP release, where any sustained export momentum could reinforce the current mid-3% to mid-4% consensus.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Rynek otwarty: Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,961Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01Robust semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have positioned the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% bands as the leading market-implied outcomes for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth, with combined probabilities exceeding 100% in the latest pricing. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the strongest in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export expansion, prompting institutions including JPMorgan and KDI to lift full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Offsetting pressures from soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation continue to support probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% range. Traders will monitor May trade figures and global tech orders ahead of the July 28 advance GDP release, where any sustained export momentum could reinforce the current mid-3% to mid-4% consensus.
This market will resolve according to South Korea's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate (Year-on-Year, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Bank of Korea’s Real Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate) release for the second quarter of 2026, scheduled for release on July 23, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/singl/newsDataEng/list.do?pageIndex=&targetDepth=3&menuNo=400423&syncMenuChekKey=1&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400423&date=&sdate=&edate=&sort=1&pageUnit=10
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Growth Rates by Type of Economic Activity and Component of Expenditure (original series, percentage change over previous year)” in the row “Gross Domestic Product” and the column for the specified quarter. Changes in South Korea’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports year-on-year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/stats/statsPublictSchdul/listCldr.do?menuNo=400359&date=2026-01
Wolumen
$1,961Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 23, 2026, 6:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Robust semiconductor exports and April’s 48% year-over-year trade surge have positioned the 3.5–3.9% and 4.0–4.4% bands as the leading market-implied outcomes for South Korea’s Q2 2026 GDP growth, with combined probabilities exceeding 100% in the latest pricing. The Bank of Korea’s 3.6% Q1 YoY print—the strongest in five years—stemmed from AI-driven chip demand and 5.1% export expansion, prompting institutions including JPMorgan and KDI to lift full-year forecasts to 2.5–3.0%. Offsetting pressures from soft April employment gains of just 74,000 and 2.6% inflation continue to support probabilities in the 1.5–2.9% range. Traders will monitor May trade figures and global tech orders ahead of the July 28 advance GDP release, where any sustained export momentum could reinforce the current mid-3% to mid-4% consensus.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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