Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following 5.0% in Q1 and a 4.7% first-half print, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% band for Q3 amid persistent weak domestic demand and property-sector headwinds. Consensus forecasts from Reuters, IMF, and BBVA cluster near 4.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting resilience in manufacturing, exports, and high-tech sectors offset by subdued consumption and fixed-asset investment. Market-implied odds price the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% ranges highest because these align with the observed deceleration trajectory and official 4.5-5% target range, while tail risks below 4.3% or above 4.9% remain discounted absent major stimulus or external shocks. The October Q3 data release and any further policy easing represent the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q3 2026?
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 11.8%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$26,741 Wol.
$26,741 Wol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
12%
4.3-4.6%
49%
4.6-4.9%
38%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
1%
4.3-4.6% 49%
4.6-4.9% 38%
4.0-4.3% 11.8%
4.9-5.2% 2.5%
$26,741 Wol.
$26,741 Wol.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$952 Wol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$666 Wol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$709 Wol.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,623 Wol.
12%
4.3-4.6%
$10,014 Wol.
49%
4.6-4.9%
$7,996 Wol.
38%
4.9-5.2%
$2,841 Wol.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$899 Wol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,040 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following 5.0% in Q1 and a 4.7% first-half print, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% band for Q3 amid persistent weak domestic demand and property-sector headwinds. Consensus forecasts from Reuters, IMF, and BBVA cluster near 4.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting resilience in manufacturing, exports, and high-tech sectors offset by subdued consumption and fixed-asset investment. Market-implied odds price the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% ranges highest because these align with the observed deceleration trajectory and official 4.5-5% target range, while tail risks below 4.3% or above 4.9% remain discounted absent major stimulus or external shocks. The October Q3 data release and any further policy easing represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Rynek otwarty: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$26,741Data zakończenia
Oct 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following 5.0% in Q1 and a 4.7% first-half print, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% band for Q3 amid persistent weak domestic demand and property-sector headwinds. Consensus forecasts from Reuters, IMF, and BBVA cluster near 4.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting resilience in manufacturing, exports, and high-tech sectors offset by subdued consumption and fixed-asset investment. Market-implied odds price the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% ranges highest because these align with the observed deceleration trajectory and official 4.5-5% target range, while tail risks below 4.3% or above 4.9% remain discounted absent major stimulus or external shocks. The October Q3 data release and any further policy easing represent the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Wolumen
$26,741Data zakończenia
Oct 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, following 5.0% in Q1 and a 4.7% first-half print, has anchored trader sentiment around the 4.3-4.6% band for Q3 amid persistent weak domestic demand and property-sector headwinds. Consensus forecasts from Reuters, IMF, and BBVA cluster near 4.5% for full-year 2026, reflecting resilience in manufacturing, exports, and high-tech sectors offset by subdued consumption and fixed-asset investment. Market-implied odds price the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% ranges highest because these align with the observed deceleration trajectory and official 4.5-5% target range, while tail risks below 4.3% or above 4.9% remain discounted absent major stimulus or external shocks. The October Q3 data release and any further policy easing represent the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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