Redistricting under new Florida maps has shifted FL-09 toward a Republican lean with an R+8 Cook PVI, positioning the GOP nominee for an advantage against Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Likely Republican. Soto advanced unopposed in the August 18 Democratic primary, while Dan Green narrowly won a crowded Republican primary that concluded days ago. These developments, combined with the district’s altered boundaries encompassing more conservative areas around Orlando and Kissimmee, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican candidate at 71.5% implied probability over the Democrat at 28.5%.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFL-09 House Election Winner
FL-09 House Election Winner
$18,498 Wol.
$18,498 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
72%
Democratic Party
29%
$18,498 Wol.
$18,498 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$10,873 Wol.
72%
Democratic Party
$7,625 Wol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under new Florida maps has shifted FL-09 toward a Republican lean with an R+8 Cook PVI, positioning the GOP nominee for an advantage against Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Likely Republican. Soto advanced unopposed in the August 18 Democratic primary, while Dan Green narrowly won a crowded Republican primary that concluded days ago. These developments, combined with the district’s altered boundaries encompassing more conservative areas around Orlando and Kissimmee, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican candidate at 71.5% implied probability over the Democrat at 28.5%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Wolumen
$18,498Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under new Florida maps has shifted FL-09 toward a Republican lean with an R+8 Cook PVI, positioning the GOP nominee for an advantage against Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Likely Republican. Soto advanced unopposed in the August 18 Democratic primary, while Dan Green narrowly won a crowded Republican primary that concluded days ago. These developments, combined with the district’s altered boundaries encompassing more conservative areas around Orlando and Kissimmee, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican candidate at 71.5% implied probability over the Democrat at 28.5%.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$18,498Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under new Florida maps has shifted FL-09 toward a Republican lean with an R+8 Cook PVI, positioning the GOP nominee for an advantage against Democratic incumbent Darren Soto despite his 2024 performance. Forecasters including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Likely Republican. Soto advanced unopposed in the August 18 Democratic primary, while Dan Green narrowly won a crowded Republican primary that concluded days ago. These developments, combined with the district’s altered boundaries encompassing more conservative areas around Orlando and Kissimmee, underpin the current trader consensus favoring the Republican candidate at 71.5% implied probability over the Democrat at 28.5%.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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