**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on July 23?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 23?
29°C 25%
28°C 23%
27°C 21%
30°C 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
11%
27°C
21%
28°C
23%
29°C
25%
30°C
16%
31°C
7%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 25%
28°C 23%
27°C 21%
30°C 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 23, 2026
24°C or below
$559 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$699 Wol.
1%
26°C
$241 Wol.
11%
27°C
$593 Wol.
21%
28°C
$69 Wol.
23%
29°C
$7 Wol.
25%
30°C
$267 Wol.
16%
31°C
$115 Wol.
7%
32°C
$30 Wol.
2%
33°C
$30 Wol.
1%
34°C or higher
$54 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling.
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$2,664Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling.
Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,664Data zakończenia
Jul 23, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–31°C for Beijing’s highest temperature on July 23, 2026, reflecting forecast uncertainty in precipitation timing and cloud cover rather than a single dominant outcome.** Official guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble runs (ECMWF/GFS) points to highs near 29–31°C amid monsoon moisture and potential thundershowers, which limit surface heating through reduced insolation and evaporative cooling. Key differentiating factors include the strength and timing of any frontal or convective activity: heavier or earlier rain favors the 28–29°C outcomes by suppressing peak insolation, while clearer intervals or delayed showers allow readings to reach 30–31°C. Humidity levels near 70–80% and light southerly flow further modulate the diurnal range, while Beijing’s urban heat island adds a localized boost of 1–2°C compared with rural surroundings. Model spread in the 48-hour window before the date drives the close probabilities, with new observational data and updated runs expected to narrow the range as July 23 approaches.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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