**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Beijing on July 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 24?
29°C 32%
30°C 26%
28°C 22%
31°C 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 24, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
6%
28°C
22%
29°C
32%
30°C
26%
31°C
16%
32°C
6%
33°C
3%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 32%
30°C 26%
28°C 22%
31°C 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Jul 24, 2026
24°C or below
$5 Wol.
<1%
25°C
$15 Wol.
1%
26°C
$16 Wol.
2%
27°C
$0 Wol.
6%
28°C
$21 Wol.
22%
29°C
$1 Wol.
32%
30°C
$0 Wol.
26%
31°C
$61 Wol.
16%
32°C
$0 Wol.
6%
33°C
$6 Wol.
3%
34°C or higher
$10 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Wolumen
$135Data zakończenia
Jul 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$135Data zakończenia
Jul 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 22, 2026, 12:03 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 28–31°C because short-range forecast models show Beijing under a weakening subtropical high with variable moisture influx from the East Asian monsoon.** Ensemble guidance from global and regional models indicates daytime maxima near 29°C on July 24, tempered by expected cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late-July rainy period. Small differences in simulated timing and intensity of precipitation or boundary-layer mixing produce the 1–2 °C spread across leading outcomes; drier, sunnier solutions push probabilities toward 30–31 °C while stronger afternoon convection favors the lower side. Historical climatology places late-July Beijing highs near 31 °C, but current moisture anomalies and urban heat-island modulation introduce measurable uncertainty that traders price as near-even odds among the top four bins. Updated model runs and official China Meteorological Administration guidance over the next 48 hours will be the key near-term drivers of any further shifts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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