Traders assign the highest probabilities to a daily maximum of 11°C or 12°C in Buenos Aires on August 13, reflecting short-range model consensus from agencies such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and international guidance showing a cool winter day moderated by southeasterly flow off the Atlantic. Mid-August climatology places the long-term average high near 15–17°C, but recent pattern persistence—with below-normal 850 hPa temperatures and increased cloud cover—has kept surface readings suppressed, favoring the lower end of the distribution. Official forecasts indicate light winds and possible light rain or drizzle that limit daytime warming, while ensemble spreads remain narrow around 10–13°C. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour maximum recorded at the central observatory; any late-day clearing could push readings slightly higher, though current data releases show limited upside risk beyond 12°C.