Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 24?
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38°C or higher 17%
36°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
10%
33°C
13%
34°C
23%
35°C
21%
36°C
14%
37°C
10%
38°C or higher
17%
34°C 23%
35°C 21%
38°C or higher 17%
36°C 14%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Wol.
4%
29°C
$5 Wol.
4%
30°C
$5 Wol.
4%
31°C
$5 Wol.
2%
32°C
$20 Wol.
10%
33°C
$0 Wol.
13%
34°C
$0 Wol.
23%
35°C
$0 Wol.
21%
36°C
$0 Wol.
14%
37°C
$0 Wol.
10%
38°C or higher
$0 Wol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Wolumen
$35Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$35Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecasts from global and regional models show Chengdu's August 24 maximum temperature likely centering on 34–36 °C, with trader probabilities tightly clustered because ensemble spreads remain wide. Key differentiating factors include the strength and position of the western Pacific subtropical high, which modulates subsidence and solar heating over the Sichuan basin, alongside local effects such as urban heat retention and reduced evaporative cooling after recent rainfall. Model disagreement on low-level wind patterns and afternoon cloud cover creates the observed 22.5 %–13.5 % spread across the 34 °C, 35 °C, and 36 °C outcomes. New runs from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF expected within the next 24–48 hours will narrow uncertainty ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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