Diverging short-range ensemble forecasts from major models create balanced market-implied odds near typical late-August minimums for Ankara on the central Anatolian plateau. Current guidance points to clear, dry conditions under a ridge, supporting overnight radiative cooling toward 17–20 °C lows, yet slight differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and timing of any weak trough passage introduce spread that elevates the probability of both cooler outcomes (17 °C or below) and warmer ones (27 °C or higher). Historical climatology places average August minima near 15–17 °C, so the tight clustering of probabilities around 18–26 °C reflects model uncertainty rather than extreme anomalies. Traders will watch the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates for refinements in dew-point and cloud-cover forecasts ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on August 24?
27°C or higher 93%
21°C 87%
23°C 87%
24°C 87%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
17°C or below
47%
18°C
44%
19°C
26%
20°C
44%
21°C
87%
22°C
51%
23°C
87%
24°C
87%
25°C
87%
26°C
87%
27°C or higher
93%
27°C or higher 93%
21°C 87%
23°C 87%
24°C 87%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
17°C or below
$0 Wol.
47%
18°C
$0 Wol.
44%
19°C
$0 Wol.
26%
20°C
$4 Wol.
44%
21°C
$5 Wol.
87%
22°C
$5 Wol.
51%
23°C
$5 Wol.
87%
24°C
$5 Wol.
87%
25°C
$5 Wol.
87%
26°C
$5 Wol.
87%
27°C or higher
$5 Wol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Diverging short-range ensemble forecasts from major models create balanced market-implied odds near typical late-August minimums for Ankara on the central Anatolian plateau. Current guidance points to clear, dry conditions under a ridge, supporting overnight radiative cooling toward 17–20 °C lows, yet slight differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and timing of any weak trough passage introduce spread that elevates the probability of both cooler outcomes (17 °C or below) and warmer ones (27 °C or higher). Historical climatology places average August minima near 15–17 °C, so the tight clustering of probabilities around 18–26 °C reflects model uncertainty rather than extreme anomalies. Traders will watch the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates for refinements in dew-point and cloud-cover forecasts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$39Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Diverging short-range ensemble forecasts from major models create balanced market-implied odds near typical late-August minimums for Ankara on the central Anatolian plateau. Current guidance points to clear, dry conditions under a ridge, supporting overnight radiative cooling toward 17–20 °C lows, yet slight differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and timing of any weak trough passage introduce spread that elevates the probability of both cooler outcomes (17 °C or below) and warmer ones (27 °C or higher). Historical climatology places average August minima near 15–17 °C, so the tight clustering of probabilities around 18–26 °C reflects model uncertainty rather than extreme anomalies. Traders will watch the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates for refinements in dew-point and cloud-cover forecasts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$39Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 2:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Diverging short-range ensemble forecasts from major models create balanced market-implied odds near typical late-August minimums for Ankara on the central Anatolian plateau. Current guidance points to clear, dry conditions under a ridge, supporting overnight radiative cooling toward 17–20 °C lows, yet slight differences in boundary-layer moisture, wind speed, and timing of any weak trough passage introduce spread that elevates the probability of both cooler outcomes (17 °C or below) and warmer ones (27 °C or higher). Historical climatology places average August minima near 15–17 °C, so the tight clustering of probabilities around 18–26 °C reflects model uncertainty rather than extreme anomalies. Traders will watch the next ECMWF and GFS runs plus Turkish State Meteorological Service updates for refinements in dew-point and cloud-cover forecasts ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania