Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate the southwest monsoon (habagat) will continue delivering scattered showers and cloud cover to Manila on August 24, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's heaviest weighting on a 31°C high (33.5% implied probability). Typical August climatology features daytime maxima near 30–31°C with high humidity, while variable rainfall timing and intensity introduce uncertainty that spreads probability across 30–32°C outcomes. Stronger or earlier monsoon bursts could cap temperatures at 29–30°C by increasing cloud albedo and evaporative cooling, whereas clearer intervals or reduced precipitation might allow peaks to 33°C or above through greater solar insolation. Upcoming model runs and official updates will refine these steering patterns and convective activity ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on August 24?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 24?
31°C 34%
30°C 32%
34°C or higher 20%
32°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
8%
29°C
11%
30°C
25%
31°C
34%
32°C
17%
33°C
13%
34°C or higher
20%
31°C 34%
30°C 32%
34°C or higher 20%
32°C 17%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Wol.
1%
25°C
$0 Wol.
1%
26°C
$0 Wol.
1%
27°C
$0 Wol.
1%
28°C
$5 Wol.
8%
29°C
$2 Wol.
11%
30°C
$2 Wol.
25%
31°C
$2 Wol.
34%
32°C
$2 Wol.
17%
33°C
$0 Wol.
13%
34°C or higher
$0 Wol.
20%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate the southwest monsoon (habagat) will continue delivering scattered showers and cloud cover to Manila on August 24, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's heaviest weighting on a 31°C high (33.5% implied probability). Typical August climatology features daytime maxima near 30–31°C with high humidity, while variable rainfall timing and intensity introduce uncertainty that spreads probability across 30–32°C outcomes. Stronger or earlier monsoon bursts could cap temperatures at 29–30°C by increasing cloud albedo and evaporative cooling, whereas clearer intervals or reduced precipitation might allow peaks to 33°C or above through greater solar insolation. Upcoming model runs and official updates will refine these steering patterns and convective activity ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$13Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate the southwest monsoon (habagat) will continue delivering scattered showers and cloud cover to Manila on August 24, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's heaviest weighting on a 31°C high (33.5% implied probability). Typical August climatology features daytime maxima near 30–31°C with high humidity, while variable rainfall timing and intensity introduce uncertainty that spreads probability across 30–32°C outcomes. Stronger or earlier monsoon bursts could cap temperatures at 29–30°C by increasing cloud albedo and evaporative cooling, whereas clearer intervals or reduced precipitation might allow peaks to 33°C or above through greater solar insolation. Upcoming model runs and official updates will refine these steering patterns and convective activity ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$13Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models indicate the southwest monsoon (habagat) will continue delivering scattered showers and cloud cover to Manila on August 24, limiting daytime heating and supporting the market's heaviest weighting on a 31°C high (33.5% implied probability). Typical August climatology features daytime maxima near 30–31°C with high humidity, while variable rainfall timing and intensity introduce uncertainty that spreads probability across 30–32°C outcomes. Stronger or earlier monsoon bursts could cap temperatures at 29–30°C by increasing cloud albedo and evaporative cooling, whereas clearer intervals or reduced precipitation might allow peaks to 33°C or above through greater solar insolation. Upcoming model runs and official updates will refine these steering patterns and convective activity ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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