Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity delivering thick cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-heavy rainfall over Manila on September 3, which limits surface heating and caps maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 31°C (43.5%) and adjacent outcomes, as reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks below the historical September mean of roughly 31–32°C. High humidity near 80–90% further dampens diurnal ranges. PAGASA and international model runs through early September confirm this pattern, with only modest model spread around the expected maximum; traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued monsoon influence against any brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike. Updated official observations on the day will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Manila on September 3?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 3?
31°C 44%
32°C 19%
30°C 17%
29°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
4%
29°C
10%
30°C
17%
31°C
44%
32°C
19%
33°C
3%
34°C
2%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 44%
32°C 19%
30°C 17%
29°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
$90 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$410 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$16 Wol.
2%
28°C
$163 Wol.
4%
29°C
$51 Wol.
10%
30°C
$1,512 Wol.
17%
31°C
$772 Wol.
44%
32°C
$191 Wol.
19%
33°C
$353 Wol.
3%
34°C
$203 Wol.
2%
35°C or higher
$117 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity delivering thick cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-heavy rainfall over Manila on September 3, which limits surface heating and caps maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 31°C (43.5%) and adjacent outcomes, as reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks below the historical September mean of roughly 31–32°C. High humidity near 80–90% further dampens diurnal ranges. PAGASA and international model runs through early September confirm this pattern, with only modest model spread around the expected maximum; traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued monsoon influence against any brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike. Updated official observations on the day will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Wolumen
$3,880Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity delivering thick cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-heavy rainfall over Manila on September 3, which limits surface heating and caps maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 31°C (43.5%) and adjacent outcomes, as reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks below the historical September mean of roughly 31–32°C. High humidity near 80–90% further dampens diurnal ranges. PAGASA and international model runs through early September confirm this pattern, with only modest model spread around the expected maximum; traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued monsoon influence against any brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike. Updated official observations on the day will resolve the market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$3,880Data zakończenia
Sep 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 1, 2026, 12:58 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models show persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity delivering thick cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and moderate-to-heavy rainfall over Manila on September 3, which limits surface heating and caps maximum temperatures near 29–31°C. These conditions align with the market's strongest implied probabilities on 31°C (43.5%) and adjacent outcomes, as reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling from precipitation typically suppress peaks below the historical September mean of roughly 31–32°C. High humidity near 80–90% further dampens diurnal ranges. PAGASA and international model runs through early September confirm this pattern, with only modest model spread around the expected maximum; traders appear to weigh the high likelihood of continued monsoon influence against any brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike. Updated official observations on the day will resolve the market.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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