Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a stable subtropical ridge over northern Italy driving maximum temperatures in Milan near 34–35 °C on August 12. Clear skies and strong daytime insolation, combined with downslope warming from the Alps and limited mixing in the Po Valley, favor these values over higher or lower outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, supporting the market’s concentration of probability on 34 °C (27 %) and 35 °C (40 %), while the small tail for 36 °C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact ridge placement. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Milan on August 12?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 12?
35°C 44%
34°C 26%
36°C 15%
33°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
5%
33°C
13%
34°C
26%
35°C
44%
36°C
15%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 44%
34°C 26%
36°C 15%
33°C 13%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
29°C or below
$12 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$12 Wol.
<1%
31°C
$12 Wol.
1%
32°C
$0 Wol.
5%
33°C
$51 Wol.
13%
34°C
$90 Wol.
26%
35°C
$108 Wol.
44%
36°C
$75 Wol.
15%
37°C
$10 Wol.
4%
38°C
$12 Wol.
1%
39°C or higher
$12 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a stable subtropical ridge over northern Italy driving maximum temperatures in Milan near 34–35 °C on August 12. Clear skies and strong daytime insolation, combined with downslope warming from the Alps and limited mixing in the Po Valley, favor these values over higher or lower outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, supporting the market’s concentration of probability on 34 °C (27 %) and 35 °C (40 %), while the small tail for 36 °C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact ridge placement. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Wolumen
$394Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a stable subtropical ridge over northern Italy driving maximum temperatures in Milan near 34–35 °C on August 12. Clear skies and strong daytime insolation, combined with downslope warming from the Alps and limited mixing in the Po Valley, favor these values over higher or lower outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, supporting the market’s concentration of probability on 34 °C (27 %) and 35 °C (40 %), while the small tail for 36 °C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact ridge placement. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$394Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent European model consensus, including ECMWF runs, points to a stable subtropical ridge over northern Italy driving maximum temperatures in Milan near 34–35 °C on August 12. Clear skies and strong daytime insolation, combined with downslope warming from the Alps and limited mixing in the Po Valley, favor these values over higher or lower outcomes. Ensemble spreads remain modest at this short lead time, supporting the market’s concentration of probability on 34 °C (27 %) and 35 °C (40 %), while the small tail for 36 °C reflects residual uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and exact ridge placement. Updated guidance expected from national meteorological services over the next 48 hours will refine the precise peak.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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