Current ensemble forecasts from global models point to a Moscow high of 17–18°C on August 12, aligning with the near-even market odds at those levels. A cooler air mass advecting from the northwest, combined with increased cloud cover and light precipitation, is limiting daytime heating below the seasonal average of ~22°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any frontal passage, variations in boundary-layer mixing, and model disagreements on cloud thickness, which can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Traders are closely tracking updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System ahead of the short two-day window, where small changes in these variables can quickly reprice the tightly contested outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Moscow on August 12?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 12?
18°C 39%
17°C 33%
19°C 14%
16°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
10%
17°C
33%
18°C
39%
19°C
14%
20°C
3%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
18°C 39%
17°C 33%
19°C 14%
16°C 10%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 12, 2026
12°C or below
$1,472 Wol.
<1%
13°C
$335 Wol.
<1%
14°C
$1,011 Wol.
1%
15°C
$531 Wol.
2%
16°C
$454 Wol.
10%
17°C
$372 Wol.
33%
18°C
$174 Wol.
39%
19°C
$204 Wol.
14%
20°C
$275 Wol.
3%
21°C
$94 Wol.
2%
22°C or higher
$32 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models point to a Moscow high of 17–18°C on August 12, aligning with the near-even market odds at those levels. A cooler air mass advecting from the northwest, combined with increased cloud cover and light precipitation, is limiting daytime heating below the seasonal average of ~22°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any frontal passage, variations in boundary-layer mixing, and model disagreements on cloud thickness, which can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Traders are closely tracking updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System ahead of the short two-day window, where small changes in these variables can quickly reprice the tightly contested outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Wolumen
$4,952Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from global models point to a Moscow high of 17–18°C on August 12, aligning with the near-even market odds at those levels. A cooler air mass advecting from the northwest, combined with increased cloud cover and light precipitation, is limiting daytime heating below the seasonal average of ~22°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any frontal passage, variations in boundary-layer mixing, and model disagreements on cloud thickness, which can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Traders are closely tracking updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System ahead of the short two-day window, where small changes in these variables can quickly reprice the tightly contested outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$4,952Data zakończenia
Aug 12, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from global models point to a Moscow high of 17–18°C on August 12, aligning with the near-even market odds at those levels. A cooler air mass advecting from the northwest, combined with increased cloud cover and light precipitation, is limiting daytime heating below the seasonal average of ~22°C. Key differentiating factors include the precise timing of any frontal passage, variations in boundary-layer mixing, and model disagreements on cloud thickness, which can shift peak temperatures by 1–2°C. Traders are closely tracking updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System ahead of the short two-day window, where small changes in these variables can quickly reprice the tightly contested outcomes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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