Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and northerly winds over Tokyo on September 11, limiting daytime solar heating and advecting cooler maritime air. These conditions favor a daily maximum near 20–22°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered tightly around those values. High humidity and evaporative cooling from rainfall further suppress peak temperatures compared to clearer September climatology. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, though any unexpected clearing could allow modest warming toward 23°C or above. Traders appear to weigh these atmospheric dynamics against historical early-September baselines when assessing resolution probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 11?
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 25%
23°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 11, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
5%
20°C
25%
21°C
33%
22°C
26%
23°C
9%
24°C
3%
25°C or higher
1%
21°C 33%
22°C 26%
20°C 25%
23°C 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 11, 2026
15°C or below
$1,279 Wol.
<1%
16°C
$549 Wol.
<1%
17°C
$214 Wol.
<1%
18°C
$11 Wol.
2%
19°C
$269 Wol.
5%
20°C
$1,507 Wol.
25%
21°C
$778 Wol.
33%
22°C
$515 Wol.
26%
23°C
$295 Wol.
9%
24°C
$230 Wol.
3%
25°C or higher
$410 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and northerly winds over Tokyo on September 11, limiting daytime solar heating and advecting cooler maritime air. These conditions favor a daily maximum near 20–22°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered tightly around those values. High humidity and evaporative cooling from rainfall further suppress peak temperatures compared to clearer September climatology. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, though any unexpected clearing could allow modest warming toward 23°C or above. Traders appear to weigh these atmospheric dynamics against historical early-September baselines when assessing resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,058Data zakończenia
Sep 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and northerly winds over Tokyo on September 11, limiting daytime solar heating and advecting cooler maritime air. These conditions favor a daily maximum near 20–22°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered tightly around those values. High humidity and evaporative cooling from rainfall further suppress peak temperatures compared to clearer September climatology. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, though any unexpected clearing could allow modest warming toward 23°C or above. Traders appear to weigh these atmospheric dynamics against historical early-September baselines when assessing resolution probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$6,058Data zakończenia
Sep 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 12:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate persistent cloud cover, frequent showers, and northerly winds over Tokyo on September 11, limiting daytime solar heating and advecting cooler maritime air. These conditions favor a daily maximum near 20–22°C, aligning with market-implied odds clustered tightly around those values. High humidity and evaporative cooling from rainfall further suppress peak temperatures compared to clearer September climatology. Model consensus remains stable with limited spread, though any unexpected clearing could allow modest warming toward 23°C or above. Traders appear to weigh these atmospheric dynamics against historical early-September baselines when assessing resolution probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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