The spread in market-implied odds for San Francisco’s September 9 high temperature centers on uncertainty in how effectively the remnant circulation of Hurricane Marie will suppress the typical onshore sea breeze and marine layer. Latest National Weather Service guidance points to partly sunny conditions with highs near 86°F as high pressure builds inland, but model runs differ on the depth of any returning marine layer and the extent of high-level moisture streaming overhead, which could limit daytime heating or enhance it through reduced radiational cooling. These factors, combined with variable wind speeds and exact timing of any pressure gradient tightening, explain why probabilities cluster between the mid-80s and low-90s rather than converging on a single bin. Updated NOAA and NWS model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 9?
90-91°F 24%
94-95°F 19%
88-89°F 17%
92-93°F 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
11%
86-87°F
15%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
24%
92-93°F
16%
94-95°F
13%
96°F or higher
4%
90-91°F 24%
94-95°F 19%
88-89°F 17%
92-93°F 16%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 9, 2026
77°F or below
$237 Wol.
1%
78-79°F
$15 Wol.
1%
80-81°F
$79 Wol.
1%
82-83°F
$205 Wol.
2%
84-85°F
$82 Wol.
11%
86-87°F
$83 Wol.
15%
88-89°F
$193 Wol.
17%
90-91°F
$0 Wol.
24%
92-93°F
$106 Wol.
16%
94-95°F
$26 Wol.
13%
96°F or higher
$177 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The spread in market-implied odds for San Francisco’s September 9 high temperature centers on uncertainty in how effectively the remnant circulation of Hurricane Marie will suppress the typical onshore sea breeze and marine layer. Latest National Weather Service guidance points to partly sunny conditions with highs near 86°F as high pressure builds inland, but model runs differ on the depth of any returning marine layer and the extent of high-level moisture streaming overhead, which could limit daytime heating or enhance it through reduced radiational cooling. These factors, combined with variable wind speeds and exact timing of any pressure gradient tightening, explain why probabilities cluster between the mid-80s and low-90s rather than converging on a single bin. Updated NOAA and NWS model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,203Data zakończenia
Sep 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The spread in market-implied odds for San Francisco’s September 9 high temperature centers on uncertainty in how effectively the remnant circulation of Hurricane Marie will suppress the typical onshore sea breeze and marine layer. Latest National Weather Service guidance points to partly sunny conditions with highs near 86°F as high pressure builds inland, but model runs differ on the depth of any returning marine layer and the extent of high-level moisture streaming overhead, which could limit daytime heating or enhance it through reduced radiational cooling. These factors, combined with variable wind speeds and exact timing of any pressure gradient tightening, explain why probabilities cluster between the mid-80s and low-90s rather than converging on a single bin. Updated NOAA and NWS model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,203Data zakończenia
Sep 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 7, 2026, 7:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The spread in market-implied odds for San Francisco’s September 9 high temperature centers on uncertainty in how effectively the remnant circulation of Hurricane Marie will suppress the typical onshore sea breeze and marine layer. Latest National Weather Service guidance points to partly sunny conditions with highs near 86°F as high pressure builds inland, but model runs differ on the depth of any returning marine layer and the extent of high-level moisture streaming overhead, which could limit daytime heating or enhance it through reduced radiational cooling. These factors, combined with variable wind speeds and exact timing of any pressure gradient tightening, explain why probabilities cluster between the mid-80s and low-90s rather than converging on a single bin. Updated NOAA and NWS model cycles over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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