**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of early August, aligning with the market's dominant 36–39 outcome at 92% implied probability.** This elevated total reflects a combination of voluntary retirements from long-serving members, strategic moves into Senate or gubernatorial races, and institutional fatigue amid a narrow majority and midterm environment. Multiple announcements occurred through spring and summer 2026, including several committee leaders and members in safe districts citing family time or career transitions. Historical precedent shows comparable spikes in retirement waves during prior midterms when the president's party faced headwinds, though the current pace exceeds most recent cycles short of 1992 or 2018 peaks. With candidate filing deadlines largely passed or imminent across states by late August, additional shifts remain possible only through rare late decisions, health-related withdrawals, or primary losses that alter counts, but these are unlikely to push totals outside the narrow band already priced in by traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 92.0%
40–43 3.7%
<24 1.3%
44+ 1.3%
$73,111 Wol.
$73,111 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
1%
28–31
1%
32–35
<1%
36–39
92%
40–43
4%
44+
1%
36–39 92.0%
40–43 3.7%
<24 1.3%
44+ 1.3%
$73,111 Wol.
$73,111 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
<24
$6,266 Wol.
1%
24–27
$20,188 Wol.
1%
28–31
$23,653 Wol.
1%
32–35
$6,368 Wol.
<1%
36–39
$8,577 Wol.
92%
40–43
$4,446 Wol.
4%
44+
$3,613 Wol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of early August, aligning with the market's dominant 36–39 outcome at 92% implied probability.**
This elevated total reflects a combination of voluntary retirements from long-serving members, strategic moves into Senate or gubernatorial races, and institutional fatigue amid a narrow majority and midterm environment. Multiple announcements occurred through spring and summer 2026, including several committee leaders and members in safe districts citing family time or career transitions. Historical precedent shows comparable spikes in retirement waves during prior midterms when the president's party faced headwinds, though the current pace exceeds most recent cycles short of 1992 or 2018 peaks.
With candidate filing deadlines largely passed or imminent across states by late August, additional shifts remain possible only through rare late decisions, health-related withdrawals, or primary losses that alter counts, but these are unlikely to push totals outside the narrow band already priced in by traders.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Wolumen
$73,111Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of early August, aligning with the market's dominant 36–39 outcome at 92% implied probability.**
This elevated total reflects a combination of voluntary retirements from long-serving members, strategic moves into Senate or gubernatorial races, and institutional fatigue amid a narrow majority and midterm environment. Multiple announcements occurred through spring and summer 2026, including several committee leaders and members in safe districts citing family time or career transitions. Historical precedent shows comparable spikes in retirement waves during prior midterms when the president's party faced headwinds, though the current pace exceeds most recent cycles short of 1992 or 2018 peaks.
With candidate filing deadlines largely passed or imminent across states by late August, additional shifts remain possible only through rare late decisions, health-related withdrawals, or primary losses that alter counts, but these are unlikely to push totals outside the narrow band already priced in by traders.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$73,111Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House departures for the 2026 cycle have reached 37 members not seeking re-election as of early August, aligning with the market's dominant 36–39 outcome at 92% implied probability.** This elevated total reflects a combination of voluntary retirements from long-serving members, strategic moves into Senate or gubernatorial races, and institutional fatigue amid a narrow majority and midterm environment. Multiple announcements occurred through spring and summer 2026, including several committee leaders and members in safe districts citing family time or career transitions. Historical precedent shows comparable spikes in retirement waves during prior midterms when the president's party faced headwinds, though the current pace exceeds most recent cycles short of 1992 or 2018 peaks. With candidate filing deadlines largely passed or imminent across states by late August, additional shifts remain possible only through rare late decisions, health-related withdrawals, or primary losses that alter counts, but these are unlikely to push totals outside the narrow band already priced in by traders.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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