Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, anchoring the leading market outcome at this level. Announcements from figures including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and Tommy Tuberville span late 2025 through March 2026, driven by personal timing, age considerations, and pursuits of other offices such as governorships. No further Republican retirements have been declared in recent weeks, and primary filing deadlines in key states have not yet triggered additional exits. Traders appear to view the current total as the baseline while assigning moderate probability to one or two more announcements before the election year advances.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano7 64%
11 20.0%
8 14.6%
5 5.2%
$73,769 Wol.
$73,769 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
5%
6
9%
7
64%
8
17%
9
4%
10
4%
11
20%
12+
1%
7 64%
11 20.0%
8 14.6%
5 5.2%
$73,769 Wol.
$73,769 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$20,070 Wol.
1%
5
$15,535 Wol.
5%
6
$26,450 Wol.
9%
7
$2,145 Wol.
64%
8
$1,599 Wol.
17%
9
$1,328 Wol.
4%
10
$1,303 Wol.
4%
11
$923 Wol.
20%
12+
$4,416 Wol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, anchoring the leading market outcome at this level. Announcements from figures including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and Tommy Tuberville span late 2025 through March 2026, driven by personal timing, age considerations, and pursuits of other offices such as governorships. No further Republican retirements have been declared in recent weeks, and primary filing deadlines in key states have not yet triggered additional exits. Traders appear to view the current total as the baseline while assigning moderate probability to one or two more announcements before the election year advances.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Wolumen
$73,769Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, anchoring the leading market outcome at this level. Announcements from figures including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and Tommy Tuberville span late 2025 through March 2026, driven by personal timing, age considerations, and pursuits of other offices such as governorships. No further Republican retirements have been declared in recent weeks, and primary filing deadlines in key states have not yet triggered additional exits. Traders appear to view the current total as the baseline while assigning moderate probability to one or two more announcements before the election year advances.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$73,769Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, anchoring the leading market outcome at this level. Announcements from figures including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, Alan Armstrong, and Tommy Tuberville span late 2025 through March 2026, driven by personal timing, age considerations, and pursuits of other offices such as governorships. No further Republican retirements have been declared in recent weeks, and primary filing deadlines in key states have not yet triggered additional exits. Traders appear to view the current total as the baseline while assigning moderate probability to one or two more announcements before the election year advances.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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