As of early June 2026, 22 to 24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, a pace consistent with elevated turnover seen in recent cycles. Additional departures remain possible ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as members weigh factors such as age, redistricting effects, opportunities for other offices, and institutional pressures. Trader consensus prices the 32–35 and 20–23 bins highest, followed closely by 40+, reflecting uncertainty over whether further announcements will accelerate or stabilize near current levels. Historical patterns of late-cycle retirements and the remaining timeline until November 2026 ballots close keep the distribution tightly contested across multiple ranges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano32–35 35.7%
40+ 34.1%
20–23 31.4%
24–27 22%
$33,512 Wol.
$33,512 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
14%
20–23
31%
24–27
22%
28–31
20%
32–35
36%
36–39
14%
40+
34%
32–35 35.7%
40+ 34.1%
20–23 31.4%
24–27 22%
$33,512 Wol.
$33,512 Wol.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,148 Wol.
14%
20–23
$5,494 Wol.
31%
24–27
$4,235 Wol.
22%
28–31
$1,184 Wol.
20%
32–35
$3,767 Wol.
36%
36–39
$776 Wol.
14%
40+
$908 Wol.
34%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early June 2026, 22 to 24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, a pace consistent with elevated turnover seen in recent cycles. Additional departures remain possible ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as members weigh factors such as age, redistricting effects, opportunities for other offices, and institutional pressures. Trader consensus prices the 32–35 and 20–23 bins highest, followed closely by 40+, reflecting uncertainty over whether further announcements will accelerate or stabilize near current levels. Historical patterns of late-cycle retirements and the remaining timeline until November 2026 ballots close keep the distribution tightly contested across multiple ranges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Wolumen
$33,512Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early June 2026, 22 to 24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, a pace consistent with elevated turnover seen in recent cycles. Additional departures remain possible ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as members weigh factors such as age, redistricting effects, opportunities for other offices, and institutional pressures. Trader consensus prices the 32–35 and 20–23 bins highest, followed closely by 40+, reflecting uncertainty over whether further announcements will accelerate or stabilize near current levels. Historical patterns of late-cycle retirements and the remaining timeline until November 2026 ballots close keep the distribution tightly contested across multiple ranges.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$33,512Data zakończenia
Aug 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of early June 2026, 22 to 24 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, a pace consistent with elevated turnover seen in recent cycles. Additional departures remain possible ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as members weigh factors such as age, redistricting effects, opportunities for other offices, and institutional pressures. Trader consensus prices the 32–35 and 20–23 bins highest, followed closely by 40+, reflecting uncertainty over whether further announcements will accelerate or stabilize near current levels. Historical patterns of late-cycle retirements and the remaining timeline until November 2026 ballots close keep the distribution tightly contested across multiple ranges.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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