The Iowa 3rd congressional district remains a closely contested swing seat, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by roughly four points in 2024 against a national backdrop that favored his party. Recent head-to-head polling has shown Democratic nominee and state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott running competitively or ahead, including surveys indicating a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican and stronger personal matchup results for the challenger. Primary contests concluded in early June with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed in their respective races, and Democrats launched the first general-election ads in early August. These factors, alongside the district's modest Republican lean and midterm timing, align with traders assigning the Democratic Party the leading implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
74%
Republican Party
32%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,050 Wol.
74%
Republican Party
$3,217 Wol.
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Iowa 3rd congressional district remains a closely contested swing seat, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by roughly four points in 2024 against a national backdrop that favored his party. Recent head-to-head polling has shown Democratic nominee and state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott running competitively or ahead, including surveys indicating a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican and stronger personal matchup results for the challenger. Primary contests concluded in early June with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed in their respective races, and Democrats launched the first general-election ads in early August. These factors, alongside the district's modest Republican lean and midterm timing, align with traders assigning the Democratic Party the leading implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Wolumen
$6,267Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Iowa 3rd congressional district remains a closely contested swing seat, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by roughly four points in 2024 against a national backdrop that favored his party. Recent head-to-head polling has shown Democratic nominee and state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott running competitively or ahead, including surveys indicating a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican and stronger personal matchup results for the challenger. Primary contests concluded in early June with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed in their respective races, and Democrats launched the first general-election ads in early August. These factors, alongside the district's modest Republican lean and midterm timing, align with traders assigning the Democratic Party the leading implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$6,267Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Iowa 3rd congressional district remains a closely contested swing seat, where Republican incumbent Zach Nunn prevailed by roughly four points in 2024 against a national backdrop that favored his party. Recent head-to-head polling has shown Democratic nominee and state Senator Sarah Trone Garriott running competitively or ahead, including surveys indicating a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican and stronger personal matchup results for the challenger. Primary contests concluded in early June with both major-party nominees advancing unopposed in their respective races, and Democrats launched the first general-election ads in early August. These factors, alongside the district's modest Republican lean and midterm timing, align with traders assigning the Democratic Party the leading implied probability.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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