Republican dominance in Florida gubernatorial contests since 1998, combined with an open seat after Ron DeSantis's term limit, has shaped trader consensus favoring Byron Donalds. His Republican primary win, endorsements from Donald Trump and DeSantis, and substantial fundraising edge over David Jolly reinforce positioning as the stronger general-election contender. Jolly, a former Republican running as a Democrat with Gwen Graham, draws support from independents and moderates but faces structural headwinds in the state's voter composition. Recent polls show a competitive race with Donalds holding narrow leads or ties in some surveys, while early voting and registration deadlines approach ahead of the November 3 contest.