A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5–6, 2026, followed by a polar air mass, is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering around 9–16°C for the September 6 minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and Brazilian meteorological reports project overnight lows near 10–12°C under persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while enhancing cold-air advection. Model consensus on the precise strength and timing of the polar surge, combined with variable boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creates the tight spread across 10–13°C outcomes. Traders weigh these factors against historical September minima near 12°C and the limited window before resolution, with fresh model runs or INMET updates likely to refine probabilities further.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 6?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 6?
16°C or higher 69%
13°C 49%
12°C 31%
11°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
19%
8°C
23%
9°C
25%
10°C
27%
11°C
28%
12°C
31%
13°C
49%
14°C
24%
15°C
19%
16°C or higher
69%
16°C or higher 69%
13°C 49%
12°C 31%
11°C 28%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 6, 2026
6°C or below
$10 Wol.
1%
7°C
$0 Wol.
19%
8°C
$0 Wol.
23%
9°C
$0 Wol.
25%
10°C
$0 Wol.
27%
11°C
$0 Wol.
28%
12°C
$0 Wol.
31%
13°C
$0 Wol.
49%
14°C
$0 Wol.
24%
15°C
$0 Wol.
19%
16°C or higher
$0 Wol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5–6, 2026, followed by a polar air mass, is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering around 9–16°C for the September 6 minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and Brazilian meteorological reports project overnight lows near 10–12°C under persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while enhancing cold-air advection. Model consensus on the precise strength and timing of the polar surge, combined with variable boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creates the tight spread across 10–13°C outcomes. Traders weigh these factors against historical September minima near 12°C and the limited window before resolution, with fresh model runs or INMET updates likely to refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$10Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5–6, 2026, followed by a polar air mass, is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering around 9–16°C for the September 6 minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and Brazilian meteorological reports project overnight lows near 10–12°C under persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while enhancing cold-air advection. Model consensus on the precise strength and timing of the polar surge, combined with variable boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creates the tight spread across 10–13°C outcomes. Traders weigh these factors against historical September minima near 12°C and the limited window before resolution, with fresh model runs or INMET updates likely to refine probabilities further.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$10Data zakończenia
Sep 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 4, 2026, 8:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5–6, 2026, followed by a polar air mass, is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering around 9–16°C for the September 6 minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and Brazilian meteorological reports project overnight lows near 10–12°C under persistent cloud cover, southeasterly winds of 10–20 km/h, and periods of rain that limit radiational cooling while enhancing cold-air advection. Model consensus on the precise strength and timing of the polar surge, combined with variable boundary-layer mixing and precipitation timing, creates the tight spread across 10–13°C outcomes. Traders weigh these factors against historical September minima near 12°C and the limited window before resolution, with fresh model runs or INMET updates likely to refine probabilities further.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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