**Forecast models for Wellington on September 5 indicate a minimum temperature most likely in the 10–12°C range, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those levels.** Northwesterly winds, currently gusting 30–50 km/h with peaks over 60 km/h, are advecting relatively mild maritime air from the Tasman Sea while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies. Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug places the overnight low near 11–12°C, with some ensemble runs allowing brief dips toward 9–10°C if winds ease or clearer pockets develop. Historical September averages for Wellington sit around 8–10°C for minima, so the current pattern represents a modestly warmer-than-normal setup driven by the prevailing flow. With resolution hinging on the precise hourly minimum recorded at official stations, small differences in model timing or boundary-layer mixing create the observed spread in probabilities (12°C leading at 37.5%, followed closely by 7°C-or-below and 17°C-or-higher at 34.5% each). Updated model runs and local observations over the next 24 hours will be the key inputs for any shifts in trader positioning.