**Forecast models for Wellington on September 4, 2026, point to an overnight minimum in the 9–11°C range, driven by a northwesterly flow pattern and variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug currently indicates a low near 11°C or 49°F (roughly 9.4°C), consistent with typical early-spring conditions where average September minima hover around 8–10°C. Clearer skies overnight could enhance radiative cooling, while stronger NW winds (20–30 mph) may limit the deepest drops by mixing the boundary layer. Trader sentiment favoring 12°C (58.5% implied probability) and 13°C (41.5%) likely reflects model ensemble spread, potential timing of the daily minimum, and uncertainty in exact station measurements versus broader forecast guidance. Lower outcomes like 9–11°C retain solid support (around 38–39%), aligning closely with current runs, while probabilities drop sharply below 8°C or above 14°C given the mild air mass and lack of strong cold advection. Upcoming model updates and any rapid changes in cloud or wind patterns over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 4?
7°C or below 77%
11°C 74%
9°C 73%
10°C 73%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
77%
8°C
15%
9°C
73%
10°C
73%
11°C
74%
12°C
59%
13°C
42%
14°C
73%
15°C
8%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
1%
7°C or below 77%
11°C 74%
9°C 73%
10°C 73%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
7°C or below
$0 Wol.
77%
8°C
$0 Wol.
15%
9°C
$0 Wol.
73%
10°C
$0 Wol.
73%
11°C
$0 Wol.
74%
12°C
$0 Wol.
59%
13°C
$0 Wol.
42%
14°C
$0 Wol.
73%
15°C
$0 Wol.
8%
16°C
$0 Wol.
1%
17°C or higher
$221 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Wellington on September 4, 2026, point to an overnight minimum in the 9–11°C range, driven by a northwesterly flow pattern and variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug currently indicates a low near 11°C or 49°F (roughly 9.4°C), consistent with typical early-spring conditions where average September minima hover around 8–10°C. Clearer skies overnight could enhance radiative cooling, while stronger NW winds (20–30 mph) may limit the deepest drops by mixing the boundary layer.
Trader sentiment favoring 12°C (58.5% implied probability) and 13°C (41.5%) likely reflects model ensemble spread, potential timing of the daily minimum, and uncertainty in exact station measurements versus broader forecast guidance. Lower outcomes like 9–11°C retain solid support (around 38–39%), aligning closely with current runs, while probabilities drop sharply below 8°C or above 14°C given the mild air mass and lack of strong cold advection.
Upcoming model updates and any rapid changes in cloud or wind patterns over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Wolumen
$221Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models for Wellington on September 4, 2026, point to an overnight minimum in the 9–11°C range, driven by a northwesterly flow pattern and variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug currently indicates a low near 11°C or 49°F (roughly 9.4°C), consistent with typical early-spring conditions where average September minima hover around 8–10°C. Clearer skies overnight could enhance radiative cooling, while stronger NW winds (20–30 mph) may limit the deepest drops by mixing the boundary layer.
Trader sentiment favoring 12°C (58.5% implied probability) and 13°C (41.5%) likely reflects model ensemble spread, potential timing of the daily minimum, and uncertainty in exact station measurements versus broader forecast guidance. Lower outcomes like 9–11°C retain solid support (around 38–39%), aligning closely with current runs, while probabilities drop sharply below 8°C or above 14°C given the mild air mass and lack of strong cold advection.
Upcoming model updates and any rapid changes in cloud or wind patterns over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$221Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models for Wellington on September 4, 2026, point to an overnight minimum in the 9–11°C range, driven by a northwesterly flow pattern and variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and WeatherBug currently indicates a low near 11°C or 49°F (roughly 9.4°C), consistent with typical early-spring conditions where average September minima hover around 8–10°C. Clearer skies overnight could enhance radiative cooling, while stronger NW winds (20–30 mph) may limit the deepest drops by mixing the boundary layer. Trader sentiment favoring 12°C (58.5% implied probability) and 13°C (41.5%) likely reflects model ensemble spread, potential timing of the daily minimum, and uncertainty in exact station measurements versus broader forecast guidance. Lower outcomes like 9–11°C retain solid support (around 38–39%), aligning closely with current runs, while probabilities drop sharply below 8°C or above 14°C given the mild air mass and lack of strong cold advection. Upcoming model updates and any rapid changes in cloud or wind patterns over the next 24 hours remain the key variables that could shift these market-implied odds.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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