Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate San Francisco highs near 66–68°F on September 4, 2026, as an early-season storm delivers clouds, light rain, and onshore flow through Thursday before clearing. This pattern suppresses temperatures 5–10°F below the long-term September average of about 70°F by enhancing the marine layer and westerly winds that moderate coastal conditions. Trader consensus favoring 68–71°F bins reflects model agreement on post-storm moderation without strong warming, alongside historical precedent for mild early-September days when marine influence dominates. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind patterns ahead of resolution will likely drive further adjustments in implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 4?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 4?
70-71°F 43%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 11%
66-67°F 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
61°F or below
1%
62-63°F
5%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
9%
68-69°F
30%
70-71°F
43%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
4%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
1%
80°F or higher
1%
70-71°F 43%
68-69°F 28%
72-73°F 11%
66-67°F 9%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 4, 2026
61°F or below
$0 Wol.
1%
62-63°F
$0 Wol.
5%
64-65°F
$20 Wol.
5%
66-67°F
$130 Wol.
9%
68-69°F
$7 Wol.
30%
70-71°F
$51 Wol.
43%
72-73°F
$62 Wol.
11%
74-75°F
$0 Wol.
4%
76-77°F
$0 Wol.
2%
78-79°F
$0 Wol.
1%
80°F or higher
$0 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate San Francisco highs near 66–68°F on September 4, 2026, as an early-season storm delivers clouds, light rain, and onshore flow through Thursday before clearing. This pattern suppresses temperatures 5–10°F below the long-term September average of about 70°F by enhancing the marine layer and westerly winds that moderate coastal conditions. Trader consensus favoring 68–71°F bins reflects model agreement on post-storm moderation without strong warming, alongside historical precedent for mild early-September days when marine influence dominates. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind patterns ahead of resolution will likely drive further adjustments in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Wolumen
$270Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 7:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate San Francisco highs near 66–68°F on September 4, 2026, as an early-season storm delivers clouds, light rain, and onshore flow through Thursday before clearing. This pattern suppresses temperatures 5–10°F below the long-term September average of about 70°F by enhancing the marine layer and westerly winds that moderate coastal conditions. Trader consensus favoring 68–71°F bins reflects model agreement on post-storm moderation without strong warming, alongside historical precedent for mild early-September days when marine influence dominates. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind patterns ahead of resolution will likely drive further adjustments in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$270Data zakończenia
Sep 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 7:56 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the National Weather Service and other models indicate San Francisco highs near 66–68°F on September 4, 2026, as an early-season storm delivers clouds, light rain, and onshore flow through Thursday before clearing. This pattern suppresses temperatures 5–10°F below the long-term September average of about 70°F by enhancing the marine layer and westerly winds that moderate coastal conditions. Trader consensus favoring 68–71°F bins reflects model agreement on post-storm moderation without strong warming, alongside historical precedent for mild early-September days when marine influence dominates. Updated model runs and any shifts in wind patterns ahead of resolution will likely drive further adjustments in implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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