Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges stemming from his January 2026 capture and transfer by U.S. forces. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with the case advancing through status hearings amid strict confinement at the Metropolitan Detention Center. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting potential outcomes such as dismissal on immunity or procedural grounds, a plea arrangement tied to Venezuela’s political transition under interim leadership, or prolonged delays in a complex international case. The next highest share for 60+ years aligns with the maximum penalties available on the indictment counts if conviction occurs without mitigation, while lower ranges account for partial verdicts or sentencing reductions. Recent court activity through March has not yet resolved core legal challenges or produced new plea signals that would shift these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoBrak kary więzienia 35%
60+ 25%
<20 11.5%
20–40 11.2%
$567,036 Wol.
$567,036 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
Brak kary więzienia
35%
<20
11%
20–40
11%
40–60
6%
60+
25%
Brak kary więzienia 35%
60+ 25%
<20 11.5%
20–40 11.2%
$567,036 Wol.
$567,036 Wol.
Dec 31, 2027
Brak kary więzienia
$382,563 Wol.
35%
<20
$76,691 Wol.
11%
20–40
$50,309 Wol.
11%
40–60
$20,195 Wol.
6%
60+
$37,279 Wol.
25%
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges stemming from his January 2026 capture and transfer by U.S. forces. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with the case advancing through status hearings amid strict confinement at the Metropolitan Detention Center. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting potential outcomes such as dismissal on immunity or procedural grounds, a plea arrangement tied to Venezuela’s political transition under interim leadership, or prolonged delays in a complex international case. The next highest share for 60+ years aligns with the maximum penalties available on the indictment counts if conviction occurs without mitigation, while lower ranges account for partial verdicts or sentencing reductions. Recent court activity through March has not yet resolved core legal challenges or produced new plea signals that would shift these implied probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ET
Wolumen
$567,036Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges stemming from his January 2026 capture and transfer by U.S. forces. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with the case advancing through status hearings amid strict confinement at the Metropolitan Detention Center. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting potential outcomes such as dismissal on immunity or procedural grounds, a plea arrangement tied to Venezuela’s political transition under interim leadership, or prolonged delays in a complex international case. The next highest share for 60+ years aligns with the maximum penalties available on the indictment counts if conviction occurs without mitigation, while lower ranges account for partial verdicts or sentencing reductions. Recent court activity through March has not yet resolved core legal challenges or produced new plea signals that would shift these implied probabilities.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra".
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket.
If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$567,036Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 4, 2026, 12:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro faces ongoing federal prosecution in New York on narco-terrorism, drug trafficking, and weapons charges stemming from his January 2026 capture and transfer by U.S. forces. He and his wife have pleaded not guilty, with the case advancing through status hearings amid strict confinement at the Metropolitan Detention Center. Traders assign the highest probability to no prison time, reflecting potential outcomes such as dismissal on immunity or procedural grounds, a plea arrangement tied to Venezuela’s political transition under interim leadership, or prolonged delays in a complex international case. The next highest share for 60+ years aligns with the maximum penalties available on the indictment counts if conviction occurs without mitigation, while lower ranges account for partial verdicts or sentencing reductions. Recent court activity through March has not yet resolved core legal challenges or produced new plea signals that would shift these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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