Michael Minogue's landslide victory at the Massachusetts Republican state convention on April 26, capturing over 70% of delegate votes to secure the party endorsement, has solidified trader consensus at 79% implied probability for him as the GOP gubernatorial primary winner on September 1. Brian Shortsleeve narrowly cleared the 15% threshold with 15.5% to qualify automatically for the ballot, holding steady at 13% amid calls for a primary debate that Minogue has sidestepped in favor of general election challenges to incumbent Gov. Maura Healey. Mike Kennealy's failure to reach 15% has relegated him to collecting nomination signatures, reflected in his 0.4% odds, as post-convention polling shows Minogue consolidating support among primary voters.