**Democratic Senate primaries in 2026 feature a limited field of incumbents seeking renomination amid multiple retirements.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election, several long-serving senators—including Dick Durbin in Illinois and Gary Peters in Michigan—opted not to run, reducing the number of contested Democratic primaries and lowering the baseline risk of incumbent defeats. The handful of Democratic incumbents on the ballot, such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, have faced minimal organized opposition or filed challengers who failed to advance meaningfully. Recent primary outcomes, including the August Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed and earlier Illinois results favoring establishment-backed candidates, show no Democratic incumbent losses, consistent with historical patterns where such defeats remain rare absent major scandals or well-funded intra-party challenges. Upcoming primaries through September offer few additional opportunities for upsets, reinforcing trader consensus around zero losses as the most probable outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
How many Democratic Senate Incumbents will not win their Primary?
0 79%
1 11.2%
>4 4.8%
2 3.4%
$14,032 Wol.
$14,032 Wol.
0
79%
1
11%
2
3%
3
<1%
4
1%
>4
5%
0 79%
1 11.2%
>4 4.8%
2 3.4%
$14,032 Wol.
$14,032 Wol.
0
$8,581 Wol.
79%
1
$1,887 Wol.
11%
2
$1,518 Wol.
3%
3
$720 Wol.
<1%
4
$724 Wol.
1%
>4
$602 Wol.
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate primaries in 2026 feature a limited field of incumbents seeking renomination amid multiple retirements.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election, several long-serving senators—including Dick Durbin in Illinois and Gary Peters in Michigan—opted not to run, reducing the number of contested Democratic primaries and lowering the baseline risk of incumbent defeats.
The handful of Democratic incumbents on the ballot, such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, have faced minimal organized opposition or filed challengers who failed to advance meaningfully. Recent primary outcomes, including the August Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed and earlier Illinois results favoring establishment-backed candidates, show no Democratic incumbent losses, consistent with historical patterns where such defeats remain rare absent major scandals or well-funded intra-party challenges.
Upcoming primaries through September offer few additional opportunities for upsets, reinforcing trader consensus around zero losses as the most probable outcome.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$14,032Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate primaries in 2026 feature a limited field of incumbents seeking renomination amid multiple retirements.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election, several long-serving senators—including Dick Durbin in Illinois and Gary Peters in Michigan—opted not to run, reducing the number of contested Democratic primaries and lowering the baseline risk of incumbent defeats.
The handful of Democratic incumbents on the ballot, such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, have faced minimal organized opposition or filed challengers who failed to advance meaningfully. Recent primary outcomes, including the August Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed and earlier Illinois results favoring establishment-backed candidates, show no Democratic incumbent losses, consistent with historical patterns where such defeats remain rare absent major scandals or well-funded intra-party challenges.
Upcoming primaries through September offer few additional opportunities for upsets, reinforcing trader consensus around zero losses as the most probable outcome.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Wolumen
$14,032Rynek otwarty
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic Senate primaries in 2026 feature a limited field of incumbents seeking renomination amid multiple retirements.** With 13 Democratic seats up for election, several long-serving senators—including Dick Durbin in Illinois and Gary Peters in Michigan—opted not to run, reducing the number of contested Democratic primaries and lowering the baseline risk of incumbent defeats. The handful of Democratic incumbents on the ballot, such as Jon Ossoff in Georgia, Cory Booker in New Jersey, John Hickenlooper in Colorado, and Ben Ray Luján in New Mexico, have faced minimal organized opposition or filed challengers who failed to advance meaningfully. Recent primary outcomes, including the August Michigan open-seat contest won by Abdul El-Sayed and earlier Illinois results favoring establishment-backed candidates, show no Democratic incumbent losses, consistent with historical patterns where such defeats remain rare absent major scandals or well-funded intra-party challenges. Upcoming primaries through September offer few additional opportunities for upsets, reinforcing trader consensus around zero losses as the most probable outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPowiązane
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
46%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
Czy Partia Republikańska będzie miała mniej niż 22 stanowiska gubernatorskie po wyborach śródokresowych w 2026 roku?
31%
Tak
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