Miguel Díaz-Canel’s public refusal to resign under U.S. pressure has anchored trader expectations that he will remain Cuba’s president through June 30. In an April 2026 NBC interview, he stated that stepping down is not part of the leadership’s vocabulary, reinforcing continuity within the Communist Party structure ahead of his second term that runs until 2028. No party congress signals, internal challenges, or succession announcements have emerged in recent weeks, while bilateral talks with Washington have centered on energy and humanitarian issues rather than leadership transition. Persistent economic strains such as power outages have not produced verifiable upheaval capable of forcing removal in the narrow remaining window. This institutional stability explains the 80 percent implied probability that Díaz-Canel stays in office.