SpaceX’s recent Flight 13 demonstrated strong V3 progress, including an intact upper-stage splashdown, improved heat-shield performance, and the first post-flight recovery of a flown Starship for analysis, yet full reusability hinges on tower-catching and reflighting the upper stage—milestones still unachieved. Elon Musk projected the first ship reflight for late 2026 or early 2027, while Flight 14 preparations target orbital insertion and potential ship recovery, but regulatory approvals, heat-shield durability under repeated entry, and rapid turnaround remain open risks. With only months left before 2027 and no demonstrated upper-stage reuse cycle, traders see these technical and scheduling hurdles sustaining the 60.5% implied probability for “No.”