Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience amid two isolated small-bank resolutions earlier this year—Metropolitan Capital Bank in January and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia in early May—both tied to idiosyncratic credit concentrations rather than systemic pressures. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores broad stability, with banks holding robust capital buffers post-February stress tests and delivering solid Q1 earnings growth exceeding 10% revenue expectations for most S&P 500 firms. Absent fresh delinquency surges or liquidity strains, traders see minimal near-term catalysts to disrupt this positioning ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS bank failure by May 31?
US bank failure by May 31?
NOWE
NOWE
May 31, 2026
NOWE
NOWE
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience amid two isolated small-bank resolutions earlier this year—Metropolitan Capital Bank in January and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia in early May—both tied to idiosyncratic credit concentrations rather than systemic pressures. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores broad stability, with banks holding robust capital buffers post-February stress tests and delivering solid Q1 earnings growth exceeding 10% revenue expectations for most S&P 500 firms. Absent fresh delinquency surges or liquidity strains, traders see minimal near-term catalysts to disrupt this positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$6,500Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience amid two isolated small-bank resolutions earlier this year—Metropolitan Capital Bank in January and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia in early May—both tied to idiosyncratic credit concentrations rather than systemic pressures. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores broad stability, with banks holding robust capital buffers post-February stress tests and delivering solid Q1 earnings growth exceeding 10% revenue expectations for most S&P 500 firms. Absent fresh delinquency surges or liquidity strains, traders see minimal near-term catalysts to disrupt this positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET (according to the FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within this market's above-specified timeframe. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's timeframe and the FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/; however, other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Wolumen
$6,500Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 89.5% implied probability against a US bank failure by May 31, driven by the sector's demonstrated resilience amid two isolated small-bank resolutions earlier this year—Metropolitan Capital Bank in January and Community Bank & Trust-West Georgia in early May—both tied to idiosyncratic credit concentrations rather than systemic pressures. The Federal Reserve's May 2026 Financial Stability Report underscores broad stability, with banks holding robust capital buffers post-February stress tests and delivering solid Q1 earnings growth exceeding 10% revenue expectations for most S&P 500 firms. Absent fresh delinquency surges or liquidity strains, traders see minimal near-term catalysts to disrupt this positioning ahead of resolution.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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