President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an "equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market positioning. As of March 2026, senior State Department officials confirmed that implementation options are still under review, with no decision on whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site or only subcritical and other non-explosive experiments. Technical assessments indicate that restoring readiness for underground detonations could require up to 36 months, while political factors include Senate oversight, environmental opposition in Nevada, and ongoing strategic arms competition. No U.S. explosive nuclear test has occurred since 1992.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAmerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
Amerykańska próba jądrowa przeprowadzona przez...?
$770,068 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
30 września 2026
1%
31 grudnia 2026
4%
$770,068 Wol.
30 września 2026
$57,189 Wol.
1%
31 grudnia 2026
$52,068 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an "equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market positioning. As of March 2026, senior State Department officials confirmed that implementation options are still under review, with no decision on whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site or only subcritical and other non-explosive experiments. Technical assessments indicate that restoring readiness for underground detonations could require up to 36 months, while political factors include Senate oversight, environmental opposition in Nevada, and ongoing strategic arms competition. No U.S. explosive nuclear test has occurred since 1992.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Wolumen
$770,068Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an "equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market positioning. As of March 2026, senior State Department officials confirmed that implementation options are still under review, with no decision on whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site or only subcritical and other non-explosive experiments. Technical assessments indicate that restoring readiness for underground detonations could require up to 36 months, while political factors include Senate oversight, environmental opposition in Nevada, and ongoing strategic arms competition. No U.S. explosive nuclear test has occurred since 1992.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$770,068Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing on an "equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged violations of testing moratoria, remains the central driver of market positioning. As of March 2026, senior State Department officials confirmed that implementation options are still under review, with no decision on whether any program would include full-yield underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site or only subcritical and other non-explosive experiments. Technical assessments indicate that restoring readiness for underground detonations could require up to 36 months, while political factors include Senate oversight, environmental opposition in Nevada, and ongoing strategic arms competition. No U.S. explosive nuclear test has occurred since 1992.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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