Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
$21,437 Wol.
$21,437 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
5%
500–600B
3%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
17%
800–900B
36%
900B–1T
13%
1T–1.1T
4%
1.1T+
4%
$21,437 Wol.
$21,437 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,813 Wol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Wol.
3%
600–700B
$505 Wol.
10%
700–800B
$525 Wol.
17%
800–900B
$1,008 Wol.
36%
900B–1T
$1,080 Wol.
13%
1T–1.1T
$447 Wol.
4%
1.1T+
$646 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$21,437Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Wolumen
$21,437Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data shows the 2025 goods-and-services deficit settled at $901.5 billion, nearly unchanged from 2024 despite new tariffs imposed beginning February 2025. Those duties raised import costs, shifted some supply chains away from targeted partners, and lifted customs revenue, yet the overall balance narrowed only modestly because services surpluses grew and macroeconomic factors such as the savings-investment gap and federal budget position continued to support capital inflows. CBO projections anticipate further gradual shrinkage as a share of GDP through 2026 as firms adjust and the dollar depreciates modestly. Trader positioning around the 800–900 billion band versus the 700–800 billion range therefore hinges on the pace of import substitution, retaliatory effects on exports, and any additional 2026 policy measures that could alter bilateral flows or domestic demand.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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