Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
$20,985 Wol.
$20,985 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
7%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
5%
700–800B
8%
800–900B
44%
900B–1T
36%
1T–1.1T
9%
1.1T+
5%
$20,985 Wol.
$20,985 Wol.
Feb 28, 2027
<500B
$16,637 Wol.
7%
500–600B
$413 Wol.
6%
600–700B
$435 Wol.
5%
700–800B
$456 Wol.
8%
800–900B
$1,008 Wol.
44%
900B–1T
$971 Wol.
36%
1T–1.1T
$441 Wol.
9%
1.1T+
$624 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$20,985Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Wolumen
$20,985Data zakończenia
Feb 28, 2027Rynek otwarty
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 U.S. trade deficit clusters tightly between 800 billion and 1 trillion dollars, reflecting the 901 billion outcome recorded for 2025 despite broad tariff expansions. Persistent macroeconomic drivers, including the gap between domestic saving and investment, continue to anchor the balance near recent levels even as goods imports have been redirected from China toward Mexico, Vietnam, and other partners. Recent monthly data through March 2026 show deficits holding in the 55-70 billion range, with export gains in energy and agriculture partially offsetting import strength in autos and consumer goods. Further policy adjustments, such as additional Section 232 measures or new reciprocal trade talks, could narrow the gap by curbing specific flows, while stronger dollar appreciation or sustained consumer demand would likely sustain or widen it. Upcoming quarterly releases and any shifts in manufacturing employment trends remain key catalysts for repositioning.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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