**Recent reductions in overt Chinese military signaling around Taiwan have reinforced trader expectations that a full-scale invasion remains unlikely before the June 2027 deadline.** Beijing has conducted significantly fewer aircraft sorties near the island in 2026 and avoided major exercises simulating blockade or landing operations, shifting emphasis to sustained gray-zone activities such as coast guard patrols and diplomatic pressure. International statements, including the G7’s June 2027 reaffirmation of opposition to unilateral status-quo changes and former U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s assessment of prohibitive global costs, have further anchored the consensus. Taiwan’s continued defense modernization and realistic training exercises underscore deterrence without provoking escalation. Traders therefore price the “No” outcome at 87.5 percent, reflecting the absence of the large-scale force posture or diplomatic rupture typically preceding an invasion attempt.