**Trader consensus assigns only a 1.2% chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations in the narrow six-week window.** Full-scale operations would require observable troop concentrations, naval movements, and logistics buildup that intelligence and open sources have not shown. Recent activity remains consistent with gray-zone pressure and routine drills: Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises began August 6 with expanded reservist mobilization and infrastructure resilience tests, while China conducted limited live-fire drills in July and continued normalized air and coast-guard incursions. Lower ADIZ sortie rates through mid-2026 and ongoing cross-strait political contacts further support the view that escalation thresholds have not been crossed. A sudden trigger such as an unanticipated Taiwanese declaration or rapid U.S. policy reversal could still alter trajectories, though such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution period.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1% szansa
$1,859,210 Wol.
$1,859,210 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
1% szansa
$1,859,210 Wol.
$1,859,210 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus assigns only a 1.2% chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations in the narrow six-week window.** Full-scale operations would require observable troop concentrations, naval movements, and logistics buildup that intelligence and open sources have not shown. Recent activity remains consistent with gray-zone pressure and routine drills: Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises began August 6 with expanded reservist mobilization and infrastructure resilience tests, while China conducted limited live-fire drills in July and continued normalized air and coast-guard incursions. Lower ADIZ sortie rates through mid-2026 and ongoing cross-strait political contacts further support the view that escalation thresholds have not been crossed. A sudden trigger such as an unanticipated Taiwanese declaration or rapid U.S. policy reversal could still alter trajectories, though such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,859,210Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Trader consensus assigns only a 1.2% chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations in the narrow six-week window.** Full-scale operations would require observable troop concentrations, naval movements, and logistics buildup that intelligence and open sources have not shown. Recent activity remains consistent with gray-zone pressure and routine drills: Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises began August 6 with expanded reservist mobilization and infrastructure resilience tests, while China conducted limited live-fire drills in July and continued normalized air and coast-guard incursions. Lower ADIZ sortie rates through mid-2026 and ongoing cross-strait political contacts further support the view that escalation thresholds have not been crossed. A sudden trigger such as an unanticipated Taiwanese declaration or rapid U.S. policy reversal could still alter trajectories, though such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$1,859,210Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus assigns only a 1.2% chance of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of detectable large-scale amphibious preparations in the narrow six-week window.** Full-scale operations would require observable troop concentrations, naval movements, and logistics buildup that intelligence and open sources have not shown. Recent activity remains consistent with gray-zone pressure and routine drills: Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises began August 6 with expanded reservist mobilization and infrastructure resilience tests, while China conducted limited live-fire drills in July and continued normalized air and coast-guard incursions. Lower ADIZ sortie rates through mid-2026 and ongoing cross-strait political contacts further support the view that escalation thresholds have not been crossed. A sudden trigger such as an unanticipated Taiwanese declaration or rapid U.S. policy reversal could still alter trajectories, though such developments remain low-probability events within the resolution period.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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