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Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?

icon for Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?
Wybory·Włochy

Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?

91% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
91% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former general and MEP Roberto Vannacci after his departure from Lega, has rapidly established itself as a distinct far-right force. Recent polling averages place the party at 6–7.5 percent nationally, well above the 3 percent threshold, with steady gains through July 2026 that have positioned it near or ahead of Lega and close to Forza Italia. Momentum stems from strong local results in May 2026 municipal votes, membership growth exceeding 130,000, and Vannacci’s nationalist platform emphasizing immigration controls and security. With the next general election due no later than December 2027, these trends underpin trader consensus that the party will comfortably clear the barrier when voters next go to the polls.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market.

Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market.

If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,620
Data zakończenia
Dec 23, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Jun 9, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Futuro Nazionale, founded in February 2026 by former general and MEP Roberto Vannacci after his departure from Lega, has rapidly established itself as a distinct far-right force. Recent polling averages place the party at 6–7.5 percent nationally, well above the 3 percent threshold, with steady gains through July 2026 that have positioned it near or ahead of Lega and close to Forza Italia. Momentum stems from strong local results in May 2026 municipal votes, membership growth exceeding 130,000, and Vannacci’s nationalist platform emphasizing immigration controls and security. With the next general election due no later than December 2027, these trends underpin trader consensus that the party will comfortably clear the barrier when voters next go to the polls.

Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count.

If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market.

Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.

This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market.

If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party.

If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,620
Data zakończenia
Dec 23, 2027
Rynek otwarty
Jun 9, 2026, 6:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Italy is scheduled to hold general elections by December 22, 2027. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Futuro Nazionale receives at least the listed percentage of total valid votes in the next Italian general elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the vote totals from the Italy (excluding Valle d’Aosta) will be considered in this market. Votes from outside Italy or from the Valle d’Aosta constituency will not count. If the specified party runs as a joint list (lista congiunta / simbolo congiunto) with any other parties in the next Italian general elections, the total votes received by the joint list will be considered the votes received by the specified party for the purposes of this market. Percentage of total valid votes will be calculated by dividing the total number of valid votes received by the specified party or its joint list by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. This market will not consider the valid vote totals of any coalition (coalizione) that the specified party joins. Only votes received by the specified party, or any applicable joint list, will count for resolution of this market. If the specified party changes its name or otherwise reconstitutes in a way which functionally represents the same entity in the next Italian general elections, this market will consider the new name or reconstitution as an extension of the original specified party. If Italy does not hold general elections, or the results of the next Italian general elections are not known definitively, by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If the specified party disbands by, or otherwise does not contest the next Italian general elections, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Government (https://elezioni.interno.gov.it/), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Często zadawane pytania

"Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały "Tak" lub "Nie" w zależności od tego, czy wierzą, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Obecne zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwo to 91% na "Yes". Na przykład, jeśli "Tak" kosztuje 91¢, rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 91% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje i wydarzenia. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Jun 9, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?", wybierz, czy uważasz, że odpowiedź to "Tak" czy "Nie". Każda strona ma bieżącą cenę odzwierciedlającą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" i wynik okaże się "Tak", każdy udział wypłaci $1. Jeśli okaże się "Nie", Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem, jeśli chcesz zrealizować zysk lub ograniczyć stratę.

Obecne prawdopodobieństwo dla "Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" to 91% na "Yes". Oznacza to, że społeczność Polymarket uważa, że istnieje 91% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym na podstawie rzeczywistych transakcji, dostarczając ciągle aktualizowany sygnał tego, czego rynek oczekuje.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Will Futuro Nazionale get at least 3% of the vote in the next Italian general elections?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.