Israeli President Isaac Herzog’s reluctance to grant clemency without a plea deal or admission of guilt remains the dominant factor keeping trader consensus on a Netanyahu pardon below 10 percent. The Attorney General has not yet submitted a formal opinion on the request, stalling any presidential decision, while Herzog has repeatedly signaled preference for mediation in the ongoing corruption trial rather than clemency. U.S. President Trump has applied public and private pressure, including a direct letter urging action, but Herzog has emphasized substantive, independent review and resisted external timelines. Public polling shows majority opposition to an unconditional pardon, and Netanyahu’s defense continues to reject terms that would require stepping back from politics. Upcoming elections and any shifts in coalition dynamics could alter leverage, yet current procedural and institutional barriers continue to anchor low implied probabilities.