Recent diplomatic developments have driven near-certain trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026. A trilateral security agreement signed in September expanded U.S. military access at existing and new sites, including provisions for missile defense infrastructure, while explicitly preserving Danish sovereignty and Greenland's self-determination. Greenland's parliament ratified the pact in early November, with Denmark's scheduled to follow later in the month, channeling prior tensions into structured cooperation rather than conflict. NATO obligations, European allied opposition, domestic legal constraints on military action against an ally, and the short remaining timeline further limit escalation paths. Rare shifts could still arise from ratification failure or abrupt policy reversal, though current trajectories show no such trajectory.