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Sovereignty predictions & odds

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U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

14%

$29.8K Vol.

$18.9K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by...?

10%

December 31, 2026

$3M Vol.

$32.0K Liq.

127

Ends in 8 months

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

25%

$41.8K Vol.

$6.0K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

6%

$33M Vol.

$179K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Will Alberta join the US?

Will Alberta join the US?

5%

$7.2K Vol.

$37.3K Liq.

6

Ends in 8 months

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

Will Trump try to acquire part of Alberta?

16%

$3.2K Vol.

$8.6K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

14%

$10M Vol.

$84.7K Liq.

268

Ends in 8 months

UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?

UK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?

4%

$2.5K Vol.

$14.4K Liq.

4

Ends in 8 months

MegaETH airdrop by...?

MegaETH airdrop by...?

96%

December 31, 2026

$3M Vol.

$4.6K Liq.

125

Ends in about 1 month

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

Will US annex any territory in 2026?

12%

$23.0K Vol.

$11.4K Liq.

7

Ends in 8 months

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top ___?

83%

50

$18.4K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?

8%

$50.9K Vol.

$13.0K Liq.

2

Ends in 8 months

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

63%

$568K Vol.

$20.4K Liq.

Ends in 8 months

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

Evo Morales arrested by May 31

18%

$16.5K Vol.

$6.8K Liq.

13

Ends in 13 days

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

Hyperliquid airdrop by ....?

48%

June 30, 2027

$480K Vol.

$5.9K Liq.

33

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

94%

$761K Vol.

$80.4K Liq.

64

Ends in about 1 month

Iran leader end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026?

65%

Mojtaba Khamenei

$9M Vol.

$200K today

$2M Liq.

111

Ends in 8 months

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

4%

$28.7K Vol.

$11.9K Liq.

2

Ends in about 1 month

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

44%

Starmer - UK PM

$361K Vol.

$252K Liq.

4

Ends in 8 months

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

<1%

$1M Vol.

$152K today

$81.0K Liq.

18

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Sovereignty.

Polymarket currently hosts 108 active markets for Sovereignty that lets you track or trade on predictions like “U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? ”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $60.7M in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Iran leader end of 2026?,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 94% chance to No. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Sovereignty predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.