Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20, 2026 Abgeordnetenhaus election show AfD support holding at 17–19 percent, ahead of the SPD’s 12–15 percent range across INSA, Infratest dimap, and Civey surveys. This gap mirrors national trends in which the AfD leads or places second in multiple state races amid voter priorities on immigration enforcement, public security, and housing costs. The SPD has posted consistent underperformance in 2026 state contests and federal polling averages near 12 percent, limiting its recovery prospects in the capital. With roughly one month remaining, traders view the current margin as durable barring a sharp late swing, consistent with historical polling stability in the final weeks before German Landtag elections.