**Recent diplomatic actions in the EU have focused on expelling lower-level Russian diplomats and staff suspected of espionage or activities incompatible with diplomatic status under the Vienna Convention, rather than the ambassadors themselves.** Hungary’s new government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar expelled 10 Russian diplomats in early September 2026, citing unacceptable conduct, while explicitly stating the move does not break diplomatic relations and signaling a policy shift from the prior administration. Similar targeted expulsions occurred in Austria (three diplomats in May 2026) and Italy (two military attachés in July 2026), often linked to intelligence concerns. Poland has advocated for broader reductions in Russian diplomatic presence across the EU due to suspected intelligence activities, but these calls have not extended to ambassadors. Russia has responded with reciprocal expulsions or threats of retaliation in past cases, and EU member states have generally preserved ambassador-level channels for dialogue amid ongoing Ukraine-related tensions. No verified reports indicate plans or momentum for an EU country to expel a Russian ambassador by year-end, supporting the current trader consensus reflected in the 66.5% probability on “No.”