Recent model consensus from agencies like the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles points to peak temperatures in Busan on August 8 centering near 34–35 °C, explaining the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those outcomes. Forecasters are weighing daytime heating under a typical late-summer subtropical high, moderated by variable cloud cover, sea-breeze effects from the Korea Strait, and potential moisture advection from the East Asian monsoon. Small differences in predicted wind speeds or timing of any passing disturbance can shift maximums by 1 °C, creating genuine forecast uncertainty that traders price accordingly. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will further refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.