Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, point to clear skies and moderate southeast winds over Cape Town on September 5, supporting maximum temperatures centered in the 22–24 °C range. High pressure building after earlier showers has reduced cloud cover and allowed diurnal warming under springtime insolation, while persistent southeasterly flow limits extreme heat by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, with most runs clustering near 23 °C, consistent with climatological norms for early September when daily maxima average around 18–20 °C. Traders appear to weigh this model consensus heavily, assigning the highest implied probability to 24 °C while discounting outliers above 26 °C or below 21 °C absent any late model shift. Updated runs ahead of the event will be key for any probability adjustments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta na Cidade do Cabo em 5 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta na Cidade do Cabo em 5 de setembro?
24°C 39%
23°C 22%
22°C 16%
25°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
5 set 2026
20°C ou menos
8%
21°C
7%
22°C
16%
23°C
22%
24°C
39%
25°C
15%
26°C
12%
27°C
9%
28°C
6%
29°C
8%
30°C ou mais
4%
24°C 39%
23°C 22%
22°C 16%
25°C 15%
NOVO
NOVO
5 set 2026
20°C ou menos
$205 Vol.
8%
21°C
$54 Vol.
7%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$0 Vol.
22%
24°C
$184 Vol.
39%
25°C
$198 Vol.
15%
26°C
$20 Vol.
12%
27°C
$20 Vol.
9%
28°C
$191 Vol.
6%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, point to clear skies and moderate southeast winds over Cape Town on September 5, supporting maximum temperatures centered in the 22–24 °C range. High pressure building after earlier showers has reduced cloud cover and allowed diurnal warming under springtime insolation, while persistent southeasterly flow limits extreme heat by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, with most runs clustering near 23 °C, consistent with climatological norms for early September when daily maxima average around 18–20 °C. Traders appear to weigh this model consensus heavily, assigning the highest implied probability to 24 °C while discounting outliers above 26 °C or below 21 °C absent any late model shift. Updated runs ahead of the event will be key for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$873Data de Término
5 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, point to clear skies and moderate southeast winds over Cape Town on September 5, supporting maximum temperatures centered in the 22–24 °C range. High pressure building after earlier showers has reduced cloud cover and allowed diurnal warming under springtime insolation, while persistent southeasterly flow limits extreme heat by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, with most runs clustering near 23 °C, consistent with climatological norms for early September when daily maxima average around 18–20 °C. Traders appear to weigh this model consensus heavily, assigning the highest implied probability to 24 °C while discounting outliers above 26 °C or below 21 °C absent any late model shift. Updated runs ahead of the event will be key for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$873Data de Término
5 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global and regional models, including those aligned with South African Weather Service guidance, point to clear skies and moderate southeast winds over Cape Town on September 5, supporting maximum temperatures centered in the 22–24 °C range. High pressure building after earlier showers has reduced cloud cover and allowed diurnal warming under springtime insolation, while persistent southeasterly flow limits extreme heat by enhancing mixing and evaporative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows low spread, with most runs clustering near 23 °C, consistent with climatological norms for early September when daily maxima average around 18–20 °C. Traders appear to weigh this model consensus heavily, assigning the highest implied probability to 24 °C while discounting outliers above 26 °C or below 21 °C absent any late model shift. Updated runs ahead of the event will be key for any probability adjustments.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions