**The dominant market outcome of 84-85°F (100% implied probability) is driven by the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago Midway International Airport (KMDW), which recorded a daily maximum in that exact bracket on August 4, 2026.** Forecasts from the NWS and supporting models had converged on a peak near the long-term August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, enabling modest diurnal warming without significant warm-air advection or lake-breeze suppression. This consensus, backed by real-capital trader positioning, aligned closely with the verified reading, leaving negligible probability for adjacent or extreme bins. The primary scientific evidence is the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) maximum temperature, which resolves the market using standardized instrumentation at the official station. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome include greater-than-expected boundary-layer moisture, thicker mid-level cloud cover, or a stronger onshore flow off Lake Michigan—all of which would have capped temperatures closer to or below the normal. Updated model runs or real-time surface observations on the day would have been the key signals for any such shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago no dia 4 de agosto?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago no dia 4 de agosto?
84-85°F 100.0%
75°F ou menos <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$37,636 Vol.
$37,636 Vol.
4 ago 2026
75°F ou menos
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
100%
30-31°C
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
32-32,7°C
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F ou mais
<1%
84-85°F 100.0%
75°F ou menos <1%
76-77°F <1%
78-79°F <1%
$37,636 Vol.
$37,636 Vol.
4 ago 2026
75°F ou menos
$638 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$539 Vol.
<1%
78-79°F
$3,190 Vol.
<1%
80-81°F
$2,239 Vol.
<1%
82-83°F
$8,405 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$8,370 Vol.
100%
30-31°C
$6,680 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$3,484 Vol.
<1%
32-32,7°C
$2,709 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$741 Vol.
<1%
94°F ou mais
$643 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The dominant market outcome of 84-85°F (100% implied probability) is driven by the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago Midway International Airport (KMDW), which recorded a daily maximum in that exact bracket on August 4, 2026.** Forecasts from the NWS and supporting models had converged on a peak near the long-term August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, enabling modest diurnal warming without significant warm-air advection or lake-breeze suppression. This consensus, backed by real-capital trader positioning, aligned closely with the verified reading, leaving negligible probability for adjacent or extreme bins.
The primary scientific evidence is the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) maximum temperature, which resolves the market using standardized instrumentation at the official station. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome include greater-than-expected boundary-layer moisture, thicker mid-level cloud cover, or a stronger onshore flow off Lake Michigan—all of which would have capped temperatures closer to or below the normal. Updated model runs or real-time surface observations on the day would have been the key signals for any such shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ET
Volume
$37,636Data de Término
4 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The dominant market outcome of 84-85°F (100% implied probability) is driven by the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago Midway International Airport (KMDW), which recorded a daily maximum in that exact bracket on August 4, 2026.** Forecasts from the NWS and supporting models had converged on a peak near the long-term August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, enabling modest diurnal warming without significant warm-air advection or lake-breeze suppression. This consensus, backed by real-capital trader positioning, aligned closely with the verified reading, leaving negligible probability for adjacent or extreme bins.
The primary scientific evidence is the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) maximum temperature, which resolves the market using standardized instrumentation at the official station. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome include greater-than-expected boundary-layer moisture, thicker mid-level cloud cover, or a stronger onshore flow off Lake Michigan—all of which would have capped temperatures closer to or below the normal. Updated model runs or real-time surface observations on the day would have been the key signals for any such shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$37,636Data de Término
4 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 2, 2026, 9:04 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The dominant market outcome of 84-85°F (100% implied probability) is driven by the official National Weather Service observation at Chicago Midway International Airport (KMDW), which recorded a daily maximum in that exact bracket on August 4, 2026.** Forecasts from the NWS and supporting models had converged on a peak near the long-term August 4 climatological normal of 83.7°F under mostly sunny skies and light winds, enabling modest diurnal warming without significant warm-air advection or lake-breeze suppression. This consensus, backed by real-capital trader positioning, aligned closely with the verified reading, leaving negligible probability for adjacent or extreme bins. The primary scientific evidence is the NWS Climatological Report (Daily) maximum temperature, which resolves the market using standardized instrumentation at the official station. Realistic scenarios that could have altered the outcome include greater-than-expected boundary-layer moisture, thicker mid-level cloud cover, or a stronger onshore flow off Lake Michigan—all of which would have capped temperatures closer to or below the normal. Updated model runs or real-time surface observations on the day would have been the key signals for any such shift.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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