Official observations from the designated National Weather Service station for San Francisco recorded a daily maximum temperature of 72–73°F on August 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the market’s near-certain outcome. This value fell within the typical late-summer range shaped by the marine layer and persistent onshore flow, which limit daytime heating despite broader regional warmth. Forecast models issued in the preceding days converged on highs near the August normal of 69–73°F at the airport site, with no significant heat advection or clear-sky intensification expected to push readings higher. Trader consensus solidified once preliminary climate reports confirmed the reading, leaving negligible implied probability for deviations. Only an unusual post hoc data revision or use of an alternate urban station could alter resolution, though such changes remain rare for this metric.