Recent forecast guidance from regional models points to a daily maximum near 14°C in Buenos Aires on August 6, driven by a cooler maritime air mass and persistent cloud cover that restricts daytime heating during Southern Hemisphere winter. Overcast skies and possible thunderstorms are expected to cap insolation, keeping highs below the seasonal average of 15–17°C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 13–14°C reflects model consensus on limited warming, while the smaller probabilities for 15°C capture scenarios with partial clearing or delayed frontal passage. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 24 hours will refine the precise threshold, as small shifts in boundary-layer mixing or timing of precipitation can alter the recorded high by 1–2°C.