Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET indicate a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Dry air with low dew points supports efficient daytime solar heating on the central plateau, consistent with late-summer climatology but elevated relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C. Model consensus remains tight, with minor spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind timing that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35–37°C, reflecting this forecast stability while acknowledging residual uncertainty ahead of final model runs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 15 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 15 de setembro?
36°C 47%
35°C 31%
37°C 10%
34°C 9%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
31°C ou menos
2%
32°C
3%
33°C
5%
34°C
9%
35°C
31%
36°C
47%
37°C
10%
38°C
3%
39°C
3%
40°C
2%
41°C ou mais
2%
36°C 47%
35°C 31%
37°C 10%
34°C 9%
NOVO
NOVO
15 set 2026
31°C ou menos
$15 Vol.
2%
32°C
$10 Vol.
3%
33°C
$10 Vol.
5%
34°C
$0 Vol.
9%
35°C
$0 Vol.
31%
36°C
$56 Vol.
47%
37°C
$25 Vol.
10%
38°C
$25 Vol.
3%
39°C
$10 Vol.
3%
40°C
$10 Vol.
2%
41°C ou mais
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET indicate a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Dry air with low dew points supports efficient daytime solar heating on the central plateau, consistent with late-summer climatology but elevated relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C. Model consensus remains tight, with minor spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind timing that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35–37°C, reflecting this forecast stability while acknowledging residual uncertainty ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ET
Volume
$171Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET indicate a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Dry air with low dew points supports efficient daytime solar heating on the central plateau, consistent with late-summer climatology but elevated relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C. Model consensus remains tight, with minor spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind timing that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35–37°C, reflecting this forecast stability while acknowledging residual uncertainty ahead of final model runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$171Data de Término
15 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 13, 2026, 12:57 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and AEMET indicate a peak temperature near 35–36°C in Madrid on September 15 under clear skies, light southerly winds, and a strong high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Dry air with low dew points supports efficient daytime solar heating on the central plateau, consistent with late-summer climatology but elevated relative to the 1991–2020 average high of 26.6°C. Model consensus remains tight, with minor spread arising from small differences in boundary-layer mixing and wind timing that could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Trader-implied probabilities cluster around 35–37°C, reflecting this forecast stability while acknowledging residual uncertainty ahead of final model runs.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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