Recent forecast model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 33–35 °C on September 14. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or in boundary-layer moisture could add or subtract 1–2 °C, keeping the 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Historical September maxima in central Spain average 26–28 °C, so current guidance already sits several degrees above climatology; any further warming from reduced cloud cover or downslope effects would push probabilities toward 36 °C or higher. The next high-resolution model cycles and updated observations from the Spanish Meteorological Agency are expected within 24 hours and will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Madrid a 14 de setembro?
Temperatura mais alta em Madrid a 14 de setembro?
34°C 51%
36°C 27%
33°C 25%
35°C 23%
NOVO
NOVO
14 set 2026
29°C ou menos
4%
30°C
4%
31°C
4%
32°C
16%
33°C
25%
34°C
51%
35°C
23%
36°C
27%
37°C
8%
38°C
2%
39°C ou mais
5%
34°C 51%
36°C 27%
33°C 25%
35°C 23%
NOVO
NOVO
14 set 2026
29°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$0 Vol.
4%
31°C
$0 Vol.
4%
32°C
$0 Vol.
16%
33°C
$0 Vol.
25%
34°C
$56 Vol.
51%
35°C
$0 Vol.
23%
36°C
$0 Vol.
27%
37°C
$0 Vol.
8%
38°C
$0 Vol.
2%
39°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 33–35 °C on September 14. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or in boundary-layer moisture could add or subtract 1–2 °C, keeping the 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Historical September maxima in central Spain average 26–28 °C, so current guidance already sits several degrees above climatology; any further warming from reduced cloud cover or downslope effects would push probabilities toward 36 °C or higher. The next high-resolution model cycles and updated observations from the Spanish Meteorological Agency are expected within 24 hours and will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$56Data de Término
14 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 33–35 °C on September 14. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or in boundary-layer moisture could add or subtract 1–2 °C, keeping the 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Historical September maxima in central Spain average 26–28 °C, so current guidance already sits several degrees above climatology; any further warming from reduced cloud cover or downslope effects would push probabilities toward 36 °C or higher. The next high-resolution model cycles and updated observations from the Spanish Meteorological Agency are expected within 24 hours and will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$56Data de Término
14 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Madrid under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly flow, supporting daily maximum temperatures near 33–35 °C on September 14. Ensemble spreads remain wide because small shifts in the position of an approaching Atlantic trough or in boundary-layer moisture could add or subtract 1–2 °C, keeping the 33 °C, 34 °C, and 35 °C outcomes tightly bunched in trader pricing. Historical September maxima in central Spain average 26–28 °C, so current guidance already sits several degrees above climatology; any further warming from reduced cloud cover or downslope effects would push probabilities toward 36 °C or higher. The next high-resolution model cycles and updated observations from the Spanish Meteorological Agency are expected within 24 hours and will likely narrow the distribution ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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