Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 13 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Madrid a 13 de setembro?
15°C ou menos 57%
25°C ou mais 42%
18°C 38%
19°C 37%
NOVO
NOVO
13 set 2026
15°C ou menos
57%
16°C
26%
17°C
23%
18°C
38%
19°C
37%
20°C
37%
21°C
37%
22°C
2%
23°C
8%
24°C
8%
25°C ou mais
42%
15°C ou menos 57%
25°C ou mais 42%
18°C 38%
19°C 37%
NOVO
NOVO
13 set 2026
15°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
57%
16°C
$0 Vol.
26%
17°C
$0 Vol.
23%
18°C
$0 Vol.
38%
19°C
$0 Vol.
37%
20°C
$0 Vol.
37%
21°C
$0 Vol.
37%
22°C
$0 Vol.
2%
23°C
$0 Vol.
8%
24°C
$0 Vol.
8%
25°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from agencies tracking Iberian high-pressure systems indicate clear skies and light northeasterly winds will allow overnight radiative cooling in Madrid, producing a minimum temperature likely between 16–18 °C on September 13. This consensus, aligned with historical early-September averages near 15.9 °C, underpins the market’s emphasis on 15 °C or below (51 % implied probability) and 16 °C (29.5 %). Minor model spreads in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point forecasts introduce the observed uncertainty, while the absence of cloud cover or frontal activity reduces upside risk for warmer readings. Updated runs from European and U.S. guidance expected later today could shift resolution probabilities if they revise the low by even 1 °C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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